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有没有一种感觉,25到26赛季欧联决赛,也许还会是英超内战(有种预感:25/26赛季欧联决赛或再上演英超内战)发布日期:2026-01-01

Considering Europa League scenarios

I’m thinking about setting the right expectations. It’s possible that if Premier League (EPL) teams send strong squads to the UEFA Europa League (UEL), clubs like Newcastle, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United could be in the UEL for the 2025-26 season, depending on their standings. The Swiss format will be in play, and the 2024-25 season’s performance will qualify for that year. Also, if EPL secures more Champions League spots, we might see fewer top teams in the UEL.Exploring Europa League scenarios

src

I can propose some scenarios for the Europa League (UEL). For instance, strong English teams like Spurs and Chelsea might land there if a lower-tier EPL team qualifies for the Champions League (UCL) but drops down after the league phase. Also, other leagues, like Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, and Ligue 1, could present strong teams potentially competing. The new 2024-25 format includes a league phase of eight games, and the UEL champion qualifies for the next UCL. As for the finals, the 2024 UEL final was in Dublin, while the 2025 final will be in Bilbao at San Mamés.Exploring Europa League possibilities

perfo

I know the 2025 UCL final is in Munich, but the venue for the 2026 final is likely in Budapest, though I'm not entirely sure. For the UEL in 2026, specifics are still unknown. It seems wise to express that it's a possibility, but not a strong one. Factors like which EPL teams drop to the UEL and the stability of Serie A and Bundesliga teams will play crucial roles. I could estimate a 20-30% chance, but it’s all very tentative. I'd also like to ask which teams the user thinks might end up in the UEL!

and

有这种感觉,但概率不算大、取决因素很多。

关键点

  • 参赛构成:哪几支英超强队会“落”到欧联很关键(联赛名次、杯赛名额、以及新赛制下从欧冠联赛阶段掉落的球队)。
  • 英超深度:像热刺、切尔西、曼联、纽卡这类若两支以上同时在欧联,确实容易打到很后面。
  • 掉落效应:欧冠联赛阶段表现失常的英超队掉到欧联,会显著抬高英超内战概率。
  • 他联竞争:近两年意甲/德甲欧战韧性更强(如亚特兰大、罗马、米兰、勒沃库森、莱比锡、法兰克福等),要双杀他们不容易。

主观体感:若25-26欧联里英超占到2–3支一线强队,决赛“英超内战”的概率大概能到小几成;若只来1支或整体状态一般,被意甲/德甲/西甲搅局的可能性更大。

确实容易打

你更看好哪两支英超会进那季欧联?我可以按你心里的候选做下路径和对位分析。

final